Thursday, 2 August 2012

Analysing performance

I have been helping some of the Scotland pairs prepare for Lille with matches on BBO. When we have two matches playing the same boards it is trivial to generate the butler rankings for the match.

In one of the matches I used a set of boards that had been played in the 2008 European Team Championships. This meant that I could also generate a butler score based on the top eighteen European Open teams and hence a datum that is representative of top play.

I think the main point of interest is that it shows the dangers of using butler scores from a small sample. The table below shows the difference of the butler just using the four tables in my BBO matches and the butler based on the Pau datum.

Scotland
Pair
Match Butler
(IMPS)
Pau Butler
(IMPS)
NS Pair 1
43
56
EW Pair 1
25
12
EW Pair 2
5
-12
NS Pair 2
-41
-21

As is evident, one NS pair had a very good game that inflated the Scottish EW performances and depressed the other NS pair in the match butler. No surprise, but it does mean that examining the hands carefully is more important than looking at the butler scores.
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