Dissection

Penultimate round of the club pairs championship and my predictive scoring was way out, so I thought I'd examine why I was so wrong.

Our card:

Board	Contract	Our Score	Estimate	Actual	Comment
1	3NT-1	-50	0	10	Went down in game, others did worse
2	3NT+1	430	8	13	Defensive assistance
3	4H-2	-200	0	2	Poor bid by me, but never scoring well
4	2H+1	140	8	10	Normal result
5	5H+2	-710	16	14	Opponents missed easy slam
6	2S-1	50	12	15	Light opening bid pushed them into wrong partscore
7	2C-2	200	12	10	Kiss of death for the opponents
8	3NT+4	520	16	14	Played in notrumps rather than 5-3 heart fit
9	1NT+3	180	8	14	Pseudo-squeeze for additional trick
10	3NT+2	660	16	15	Judged well not to bid 31-point slam, got nice lead
11	1NT+2	150	12	14	Received favourable lead
12	3NT-2	-100	8	8	Overbid to poor contract, lucky to score average
13	5D=	-600	12	10	Pre-empted above their best spot
14	4S+1	-450	8	10	Normal result
15	3S-2	200	16	16	Notrump range dependent result, but accurate defence
16	4H=	-420	4	6	Opponents bid thin game
17	2NT-3	150	16	13	Aggressive bidding pushed opponents too high
18	4D-1	-50	0	4	Poor bidding when we should both have bid 3NT
19	4S-3	150	8	16	Opponents overbid (did not appreciate how badly)
20	5S=	-650	4	5	Opponents played in 4-4 spades rather than 5-5 clubs
21	4SX-2	-300	0	6	Found good sacrifice (but was a bottom after 4 rounds)
22	4H+1	-650	4	6	Normal result
23	3H+2	-200	16	11	Opponents missed excellent game
24	4C=	-130	0	2	Opponents did well in competition to reach par contract
25	2H-3	150	16	16	Opponents played in our secondary fit
26	2S+1	140	8	9	Normal result
27	3S+1	-170	4	8	Aggressive bidding caused opponents to miss game
			232	277
			53.70%	64.12%

The boards where I was most inaccurate do represent most of the difference between my estimated score and actual result.

With Brian and George away this was our opportunity to reduce their lead in the competition and we have done some damage, but they still remain clear favourites.

According to my calculations, with their best six results, they have a lead of 2.72% going into the final round. As our lowest counting score is 59.79%, we need to score at least 62.51% to overtake them. However this assumes that they do not beat their lowest counting score of 58.47%, so our target will be

62.51% + MAX (0, Brian/George last score - 58.47)

Two years ago Brian and George won the championship by one matchpoint on the final evening. It will probably not be as close this time, but you never know!